Sunday, January 10, 2016

Top 10 Stock Picks + Market Strategy For 2016 By IndiaNivesh

In our note dated Dec 30, 2014 we had recommended 10 stocks
to play in CY15. It gives me great pleasure that those stocks have delivered -33 to 113% returns (equal weighted average of 10.9% v/s Nifty avg of -6.6% & BSE500 avg of -2.2%) taking into consideration our recommendation day price & price on Dec 22, 2015 However returns are much higher (avg 33.7%) if we consider the highest price these stocks have reached after our recommendation. I hope our esteemed investors would have benefitted from those recommendations.
 
 
 

Nine Top-Quality Stock Picks + Market Strategy For 2016 By Motilal Oswal

Nifty’s Outlook – Nifty remains consolidating within the Falling Wedge pattern with support at 7200 and breakout point being 8200. The range is expected to contract with time before a directional move. 7200 remains a make or break point and positions can be created once Index is around the same with a stop marginally below it. Upside remains open and can be traded with trailing stops later

Motilal Oswal Finally Reveals Names Of Stocks Destined To Go From “Mid-Cap” To “Mega-Cap”

We know by now that Motilal Oswal’s Wealth Creation Studies are not meant to be taken lightly. Each of the stocks referred to therein are chosen after careful application of mind to the fundamentals and valuations and have the potential to give mega gains.

The 18th Wealth Creation Study of 2014 recommended five stocks. Four of these stocks, namely, Symphony, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Corp and Zydus Wellness, have given blockbuster returns to shareholders since then.
The 19th Wealth Creation Study of 2015 recommended seven stocks. Five of these stocks, namely, Tata Elxsi, Granules India, Shilpa Medicare, Aarti Drugs and Atul Auto have given handsome returns since then.
The 20th Wealth Creation Study of 2016 is conspicuously silent with regard to the names of the recommended stocks. This appears to be a deliberate strategy by the think tank at MOFSL for reasons that are best known to them.
However, Mr. Motilal Oswal, the boss man of MOFSL, has let the cat out of the bag by naming these stocks.
In his latest interview, when he was asked to recommend a few multibagger stock ideas, Motilal Oswal blurted out:
What are your top five multibagger ideas for 2016 with a minimum investment horizon of three years?
Motilal Oswal: Bajaj Finance, Sun Pharma, SBI, ONGC, and InterGlobe Aviation are the five largecap stocks to watch out. Among the smallcaps, I would bet on Alkem Labs, DFM Foods, Astra Micro, Eveready and Lincoln Pharma.
Motilal Oswal’s “Mid to Mega” Stocks
Stock CMP (Rs) MCap (Rs Cr)
DFM Foods 970 971
Eveready 302 2,197
Astra Micro 137 1,191
Alkem Labs 1533 1,544
Lincoln Pharma 251 409
The first thing worth noting is that of the five small cap stocks referred to, two are Pharma stocks. This is not a coincidence. Even in the 19th Wealth Creation Study, four of the seven stocks were Pharma stocks.
Of the five stocks, DFM Foods is somewhat familiar. This stock was first recommended by Ekansh Mittal’s Katalyst Wealth on 19th April 2015 when it was at Rs. 322. Today, the stock stands tall at Rs. 970, resulting in eye-popping gains of 200% in just nine months.
DFM Foods’ credentials as a quality stock are established by the fact that Westbridge/ Jwalamukhi holds a massive chunk of 25% of the equity.
It is worth noting that 82.18% of DFM Foods’ equity capital is collectively held by the promoters, Westbridge/ Jwalamukhi and two other HNI shareholders.
This means that there is really no floating stock available for sundry shareholders.
It may be recalled that Sumir Chadha, the whiz-kid behind Westbridge/ Jwalamukhi, had revealed that it is his strategy to corner large stakes in top-quality small cap stocks because this results in “mis-pricing” of the stock.
Eveready is also mildly familiar because Ashish Kacholia holds a major chunk in it. Akash Prakash’s Amansa Capital also bought a chunk of 5,48,000 shares of Eveready on 06.11.2015.
Astra Micro is of the same top-quality caliber. It happens to be one of Sanjoy Bhattacharrya’s favourite stocks and had pride of place in his famous Model Portfolio.
There is a detailed research report on Astra Microwave by Oscar Capital. The report explains how Astra’s expertise in the Defense sector coupled with the Government’s ‘Make in India’ will bring great prosperity to the Company.
Amongst the Pharma stocks, Alkem Labs made its IPO debut a few days ago. The IPO was highly recommended by most brokerages on the basis of the Company’s powerhouse track record and reasonable valuations.
Lincoln Pharma is a mystery stock that has never been heard of before. Preliminary inquiry reveals that the stock is a micro-cap with a market capitalisation of Rs. 409 crore. It has been a powerhouse so far with a mind-boggling return of 213% YoY and 625% in two years.
The interesting aspect is that none of the super-savvy investors appear to have discovered Lincoln Pharma so far. There are also no research reports on the stock so far.
So, of the five stocks referred to by Motilal Oswal, Lincoln Pharma appears to be the perfect “hidden gem” to take us to the road of riches if we are able to muster the courage to buy a truckload of the stock!

Dolly Khanna’s Fav Micro-Cap Stock Has Potential For More Gains: Religare

With my usual diligence, I first reported about Dolly having bought a truck load of Nandan Denim in May 2015. The stock was then at about Rs. 73.
Not surprisingly, Dolly’s entry into Nandan Denim attracted analysts the way bees are attracted to honey. Sunidhi Securities, IndiaNivesh, Nirmal Bang and Karvy vied with each other to project lofty targets for Nandan Denim.
Nandan Denim has lived upto everyone’s expectations by effortlessly touching an all-time high of Rs. 174 on 04.08.2015. The CMP is Rs. 155.
Such is the confidence of analysts in Nandan Denim that Polus Global Fund, a renowned FII, has bet a large sum of money in the wager that the stock will touch Rs. 200 in the next 18 months.
Religare is the latest analyst to be charmed by Nandan Denim. In their latest report, Religare has waxed eloquent about Nandan’s prospects. It says:
“After huge capex investment plan, NDL will create itself as the biggest denim player in India with exports to many countries. We believe demand for Denim will surge going forward mainly due to improving standard of living, rising population and income levels, online sales, penetration in smaller cities, more women workforce and brand awareness.
India’s share in global textile industry will advance because of problems faced by China and other exporting countries. Also favorable government policies like capital subsidy, interest rate subsidy, lower power tariffs and VAT reimbursement have benefitted our textile industry and we foresee the same to continue in the future.
With strong distribution network, proactive management and growing presence, NDL will be able to escalate its market share in denim segment from existing share of 10%. Out of the total capex investment of Rs. 620 crores, 70% is financed with debt and 30% with fresh equity. We expect debt to peak out in FY16. NDL’s operational margins will improve on addition of spinning capacity and value added products in its portfolio.
Net sales and Net Profit surged at CAGR of 23.9% and 34.7% respectively in last 5 years. We expect NDL to grow around 10-15% in following 2-3 years. At CMP of Rs. 150 the company is trading at FY16E PE of 11 and FY17E PE of 9.1 times. We recommend to buy NDL for long term horizon with price target of Rs. 183.”
When I last checked, Dolly Khanna had a big smile on her face owing to the massive gains (~100% in 9 months) that have effortlessly flowed into her kitty. Whether Dolly will have more reason to smile thanks to the recommendations by Religare and the wager by Polus Global Fund requires to be seen!

Seven Top-Quality High-Conviction Mid-Cap Marvels Stocks By Edelweiss (Jan 16)

Edelweiss has issued a research report in which seven high-quality high-conviction mid-cap marvels stocks have been recommended for investment.

Our Midcap Marvels are high conviction stock ideas from the Mid-Cap and Small-Cap space to power your portfolio with the investment horizon of 1-2 years. The stocks featured in this product are relatively strong on the fundamental side, with potential for exponential revenue growth, high ROCE, strong margins and credible corporate governance.
We had introduced Midcap Marvels last month (on 4th June 2014) which has outperformed benchmark CNX Midcap Index by 62%.
Salient Features of the stocks:
These stocks are selected based on thorough bottom-up research
We believe that these stocks could be multi-baggers in the long run and should be recommended to the investors with the investment horizon of 1-2 years.

Click here to download Edelweiss’ research report on Mid-cap Marvels (Jan 16)

Top Large-Cap & Mid-Cap Stocks Picks By Angel Broking

A lot of macro factors are falling in place to create the right conditions for the markets to rally in the coming year. Brent crude oil prices have declined ~66% over the last two years to $33 as against ~$99 at the end of CY2013, resulting in significant savings for the government. Led by lower crude prices, the net import bill has reduced at a CAGR of 16% to $115bn in CY2015 as against $192 bn in CY2012, resulting in a steep decline in the current account deficit.
With these savings, the government has also been able to maintain fiscal discipline, despite an increase in infrastructure spending. We are already seeing a strong bid pipeline of `120,000cr from the NHAI and of over Rs. 244,000cr from the defense sector, expected to get tendered over the next 12 months. Accordingly, we expect uptick in government spending to result in private sector capex cycle revival. We believe the revival in the investment cycle will be the key to push the earnings trajectory upwards over the next few years led by the multiplier effect of infrastructure spending.

Click here to download Angel Top Picks – January 2016

Top 10 Large-Cap & Mid-Cap Stocks For 2016 By Karvy

Karvy has issued its much-awaited Wealth Maximizer Report for 2016 in which ten top-quality large-cap and ten top-quality mid-cap stocks have been recommended for investmen.

We believe that equities will continue to outperform other asset classes like fixed income and commodities (Gold) in the long term. Hence, we advise to remain invested in equities with a long term perspective in good quality companies in a systematic manner. We expect Nifty to trade in the band of 7560-9720 in the coming 12-15 months implying a P/E band of 14-18x CY16E consensus EPS. Considering the brighter prospects in the long term, we remain overweight on Consumers, Financials, Infrastructure, Automobile, Cement, Energy and Power.

Click here to download Karvy’s Wealth Maximizer Report For 2016