Stocks To Buy & Sell After Q4FY15 Results: Amar Ambani Of IIFL

PTC India Financial (Q4 FY15) – BUY CMP Rs45, Target Rs61, Upside 35.9% Slower than expected accretion in loan assets continue; share of renewable projects has been increasing Expect loan book to grow at 35% pa over FY15-17 Spreads coming-off; to sustain near 4% in longer term Asset quality slips; negative surprise on investment write-off Valuation has adjusted to the new normal; Re-iterate BUY with 12m price target of Rs61

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GSPL (Q4 FY15) – BUY CMP Rs119, Target Rs142, Upside 19.3% Revenues at Rs. 239cr were lower than our and street estimates owing to 4.5% yoy fall in tariffs Volumes were at 22.6mmscmd for Q3 FY15 as compared to our estimates of 23.9mmscmd OPM at 83.7% was lower than our estimates of 86.8%, due to lower than expected tariffs Decrease in debt levels led to decline in interest expenses on yoy basis We maintain our BUY rating as we expect the gas availability to increase in the country, GSPL will be a major beneficiary; we maintain our target price at Rs142

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Bajaj Auto (Q4 FY15) – Accumulate CMP Rs2,306, Target Rs2,400, Upside 4.1% Revenues at Rs. 4,739cr lower by 3.9% yoy; was in higher than our estimates Blended realizations improved 14.9% yoy driven by 13% higher export and 15.9% higher domestic realizations Total volumes were lower by 16.4% yoy as domestic volumes declined 20.4% yoy and export volumes were lower by 10.9% yoy. In terms of products, 2-W volumes declined by 18.5% yoy while 3-W volumes were flat with modest decline of 0.7% yoy OPM at 17.6% was lower by 207bps and 273bps qoq, the fall was in spite of increase in gross margins as staff costs were higher owing to lumpy provisioning for gratuity valuation APAT at Rs. 622cr was lower than our estimates Maintain Accumulate rating with a 9-month price target of Rs2,400

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Indoco Remedies (Q4 FY15) – Reduce CMP Rs368, Target Rs350, Downside 4.9% Robust domestic and emerging market formulations drive 14.3% yoy revenue growth though slightly below our estimate; regulated market growth disappoints at 2.3% yoy Mixed trend in operating costs keeps margin unexpectedly flat; PAT too misses estimate Cut FY16/17 estimates on lowered revenue and margin growth assumptions; downgrade to Reduce as 23x FY17E PE adequately factors in robust earnings cagr over FY15-17E

Tata Motors (Q4 FY15) – BUY CMP Rs497, Target Rs650, Upside 30.7% Consolidated net sales grew by 3.5% as standalone revenues jumped 26.2% yoy and JLR sales grew by 8.9% yoy Growth in JLR revenues was driven by 3.4% yoy rise in volumes and 5.3% increase in realizations JLR OPM was at 17.4% was lower than our estimates, while margins were higher by 24bps yoy, sequentially it declined by 120bps OPM for standalone business was higher than estimates at a 1.5% and was up 9ppts and 11ppts qoq yoy mainly on back of operating leverage Maintain our BUY rating as we believe JLR is set to see strong momentum in volumes given its lineup of launches in the next couple of years

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Strides Arcolabs (Q4 FY15) – Accumulate CMP Rs1,218, Target Rs1,350, Upside 10.8% Q4 consolidated revenues flat yoy but EBIDTA up 27% yoy on robust global pharma performance Regulated market sales up 20% qoq driven by North American business while lower order inflow in anti malaria business leads to 23% sequential decline in institutional revenues Australian acquisition, core business ramp up key positives; recommend Accumulate with revised 9-12mth target of Rs1,350

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Tech Mahindra Ltd (Q4 FY15) – Reduce CMP Rs641, Target Rs614, Downside 4.2% Revenue growth came in much lower than expectation; to revert to industry-leading growth in FY17 500bps qoq OPM fall was a shocker; expect a protracted recovery with multiple levers at disposal Cut earnings estimates for FY16/17 by 15-20%; Downgrade stock to Reduce

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Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (Q4 FY15) – Reduce CMP Rs241, Target Rs225, Downside 6.6% BHEL managed to report higher than expected bottomline due to lower employee costs Topline for the quarter declined 15.6% yoy to Rs. 12,686cr, marginally higher than our estimate Operating profit for the quarter stood at 13.3%, higher than our estimate of 9.8% due to a 32.8% qoq decline in employee costs PAT decline accentuated by a forex loss of Rs. 370cr and higher tax rate Order inflow for the quarter stood at Rs. 9,000cr, lower by 45% yoy as few orders were delayed. Order book was down by 0.5% yoy to 101,018cr; orders were largely from state utilities Upgrade to Reduce from Sell post the sharp correction in the stock with a price target of Rs. 225

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